AI and Software Products
1] Because large language models compute and not think, they’re unlikely to ever match humans in complex decision-making and knowledge creation.
2] What seems to be solved though, is software engineering to an extent. Most software engineers would start to include sales, marketing, and product tasks in their workflows.
3] On one hand I feel AI might increase the net number of jobs in software as per the Jevons Paradox, on the other hand, I feel that software engineering as a profession will shrink.
4] The users don’t care about what a marvel of engineering your product is; all they care about is whether it makes their lives 5x to 10x better or not.
5] Watch connoisseurs praise the engineering as much as the physicality of their watches. This phenomenon only happens for physical products and not for software, perhaps because it’s completely abstract.
Business
1] Pragmatism in business increases the chances of success but decreases the probability of breakthrough success, because breakthroughs mostly belong to moonshot ideas.
2] If you’re building a software product that instantly excites the most non-technical people around you, then it’s probably not going to make a lot of money.
3] The B2C segment is largely composed of operations wrapped around software, for example, ride sharing, food delivery, and e-commerce. Tangible operations are the real moat, especially in the post-LLM world.
4] For a purely software B2C product (for e.g. Instagram), the only way to dominate is to either (1) pour millions of dollars on behavior change and distribution or (2) to hope for virality (e.g. WhatsApp).
Technology
1] One reason why software made the world a better place is that it significantly reduced the need for capital to merge value-creation with creativity.
2] As a technology, nuclear fusion will create bigger impact than AI because energy is a more fundamental need compared to computation.
3] The most important innovations are those that directly address climate change and affordable cures for terminal diseases. Yet these receive limited focus, largely because their long revenue cycles don’t align well with market incentives.
